Take physic, pomp

Venezuela Parallel Exchange Rate Update

It’s been a while and a lot has happened. First the charts, with this one……

….showing the long view of the parallel exchange rate of Venezuela’s currency (VEF) against the US dollar and this one……

….showing what has happened so far this year. And the news is that the VEF is going ape, touching 7.1 against the greenback for the first time ever yesterday. This is due to a combo of the lack of liquidity after the US Feds closed down a big VEF moneychanger in Miami on drugs laundering charges (see Devilcaca at end March for more details on that one), the recent nerves about deval (again) and rumblings about a new dollar bonds issuance that may (or may not) fall flat on its face (more about that another day, but the name ‘Beracha has suddenly become a popular search keyword, it seems).

All the above is, of course, underlined by continuing country inflation and an M2 level that indicates a theoretical equilibrium price for the parallel VEf of no less than 6.6 vs the U$ (see previous posts for a fuller explanation on that one).

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