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a plague o both your houses

(UPDATED) Your need-to-know on Peru politics today

Yes, Kabul is more important, but Lima today has its own political show and it goes like this:

  • The Prime Minister and cabinet chief, Guido Bellido, plus his ministers, appear before Congress to seek ratification for their posts
  • Normally a rubber-stamping operation, this time Congress will refuse ratification. No-brainer.
  • This means Bellido must step down. His ministers also hand in their resignations as protocol
  • Then, between today and tomorrow, President Pedro Castillo must choose a new Prime Minister

It’s at that point we will know whether President Castillo makes it to the end of the year in his job. If he picks a moderate for Prime Minister, his second cabinet will get ratification (some time in September) and the atmosphere will calm. If he picks another radical Lefty, the collision course will be unavoidable. The first stage is today, expect the prime minister to lose his job, then President Hat gets to make the first serious decision of his mandate. It may be his last.

UPDATE: As the Congress session reached 12 hours straight, the process has been adjourned until tomorrow. Same result, just shift everything 24 hours.

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