As traditional in Canada as fat men in red coats yelling Ho Ho Ho is the Christmas zinc pump, with “zinc supply squeeze next year…promise” always centre stage.
“On a macro-scale, zinc continues to display the strongest short-term
fundamentals of all the base metals (perhaps with the exception of lead,
of which we also produce significant quantities). Global zinc mine
closures have been accelerating however the full impact of well
documented concentrate supply constraints has yet to be felt. LME zinc
warehouse drawdown rates have recently increased to almost double its
normal pace while spot treatment charges have been dropping in
conjunction with announced smelter closures globally, suggestive of a
tightening zinc concentrate market. Given Trevali’s strong zinc exposure
and leverage, the Company is well positioned to crystallize value from
strengthening in zinc (and lead) prices going forward.”
Scotia today (from the house ‘Scoop’ morning mailer):
– Zn Revisit: Zinc TCs trending lower on tighter supply (lowest since September 2014):
Zinc TCs, the discounts on refined prices miners grant to smelters to
cover the cost of turning concentrate into metal, slipped to $170-180
per tonne from $175-185 at the end of November on a cost, insurance and
freight (CIF) basis for delivery to Chinese
ports – the lowest since September 2014 and down from $185-195 in October.
Market participants are saying that some Chinese smelters are buying at
TCs of $165 to $175/t for standard grade material. Many didn’t expect
TCs to drop this quickly, thinking that the production cuts we have
been reading about take hold next year but TCs now are reflecting
tighter supply already. Recall that Nyrstar will put its Middle
Tennessee Mines (MTN) in the US on care and maintenance due
to depressed metal prices, which will translate into 50,000 tonnes per
year of zinc-in-concentrate being taken out of the market. This follows
the planned suspension of 400,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate in
addition to the 100,000 tonnes removed by the Myra
Falls and Campo Morado suspensions. As well, Glencore has slashed
annual zinc production by 500,000 tonnes, cutting around 100,000 tonnes
of contained zinc metal in the fourth quarter alone. Chinese domestic
supply has also tightened as some medium-sized
miners have closed due to low prices. Some market participants are
saying that Chinese smelters are operating at around 80 percent of
capacity in November.
Oh you funny guys, you so funny. You be make us the laughing.